MODEL VERDICT
SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. (SEDG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $42.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $45.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $38.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $37.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $41.76 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $1.04 | -97.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $36.41 | -15.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $42.28 | -1.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $51.53 | +20.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $34.89 | -18.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $36.49 | -15.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.13 | +0.5% | 100% | 66 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 114.38 | 119.97 | 32.57 | 171.68 | 55.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 73.24 | 83.30 | 25.12 | 99.99 | 29.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 63.28 | 64.41 | 21.25 | 95.67 | 27.38 |
| P/FCF | 116.19 | 100.67 | 21.36 | 242.05 | 110.43 |
| P/FFO | 74.78 | 75.24 | 27.52 | 114.73 | 34.01 |
| P/TBV | 8.15 | 7.74 | 1.29 | 19.20 | 6.46 |
| P/AFFO | 227.61 | 264.13 | 47.31 | 371.38 | 165.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.91 | 5.88 | 1.18 | 15.52 | 5.23 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.61 | 3.35 | 0.86 | 11.55 | 3.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates SEDG's fair value at $43.13 vs the current price of $42.91, implying +0.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.05 (P10) to $113.07 (P90), with a median of $69.16.
SEDG's current P/E of -6.2x compares to the industry median of 19.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -131.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 114.4x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
48 analysts cover SEDG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $35.09 (range: $24.00 — $45.00), implying -18.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (28), Sell (10), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SEDG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.