MODEL VERDICT
Coupang, Inc. (CPNG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $19.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $18.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $16.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $18.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $22.74 | Below threshold | -18.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $8.90 | -53.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $8.49 | -55.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $3.22 | -83.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $6.53 | -65.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $5.70 | -70.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $8.12 | -57.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $8.57 | -55.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $6.11 | -68.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $3.22 | -83.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $6.79 | -64.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $10.42 | -45.4% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 145× | 159× | 173× (Current) | 187× | 201× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 | $23 |
| Conservative (7%) | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $18 | $19 | $21 | $23 | $24 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $23 | $25 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 165.59 | 214.45 | 21.59 | 260.74 | 126.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 94.02 | 65.76 | 35.74 | 208.83 | 79.89 |
| P/FCF | 46.77 | 39.86 | 16.62 | 83.83 | 34.13 |
| P/FFO | 90.99 | 68.37 | 17.85 | 186.74 | 86.69 |
| P/TBV | 9.94 | 10.48 | 1.97 | 19.31 | 6.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.77 | 9.78 | 1.95 | 19.23 | 6.29 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.28 | 1.33 | 1.20 | 5.32 | 1.76 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates CPNG's fair value at $10.42 vs the current price of $19.08, implying -45.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $10.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.07 (P10) to $18.10 (P90), with a median of $12.67.
CPNG's current P/E of 173.5x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +492.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 165.6x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
16 analysts cover CPNG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $27.67 (range: $22.00 — $40.00), implying +45.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CPNG trades at the 9440th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (165.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CPNG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.