Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)
Valuation Overview•Is Septerna, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Market price has outpaced base-case intrinsic cash flows, pricing in significant future growth optimism.
Moderate quality score of 63/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
SEPN demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($97M) and minimal debt risk.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-77.1%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.5M | +4174.5% | — | — | — | |
| EBITDA | -$12.9M | — | -42.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$8.6M | +31.9% | -20.9% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.19 | +43.0% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$26.5M | +257.6% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 99.4% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Operating Margin | -77.1% | -2106.7% | -2106.7% | -2106.7% |
| Net Margin | -49.9% | -1339.0% | -1339.0% | -1339.0% |
| FCF Margin | 148.0% | -11261.2% | -11261.2% | -11261.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.51 | $-0.19 | +62.7% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.23 | $-0.24 | -4.3% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.19 | $-0.09 | -147.4% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.05 | $-0.56 | -1020.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.38 | $-0.49 | -28.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.69 | $-0.64 | +7.2% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.83 | $-8.40 | -912.0% | ||
| Q4'23 | — | $2.05 | — |
Total return is +236.6% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +215.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +28.8% | +21.5% | — |
| 1Y | +236.6% | +215.8% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +19.0% | +0.2% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +11.0% | -0.2% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +5.4% | -8.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Septerna, Inc. (SEPN) valuation, health, and returns.
Septerna, Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. overvalued (implying -92.1% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $2.95)
Septerna, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $2.95 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $50.00 (implying +33.9% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Septerna, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 63/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 4.4 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -24.6%.
Septerna, Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Septerna, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +4174.5% 1Y revenue growth and +43.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 7 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 29% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +33.9% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Septerna, Inc. include: -25.2% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.22x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.