Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$514.94
→
Intrinsic$519.70
+1%
$352.19$519.70$852.49
Market implies 25% growth for 5 years
SPOT appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $515, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (25%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $352 → Bull $852. Current price implies expectations near the base case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $656 | $708 | $763 | $822 |
| 10% | $449 | $483 | $520 | $559 |
| 12% | $340 | $365 | $392 | $420 |
| 14% | $273 | $292 | $313 | $335 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($852) offers 66% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
- 1% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (25%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($352) implies 32% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$3.48B
Year 2$4.34B
Year 3$5.43B
Year 4$6.79B
Year 5$8.49B
Terminal$134.47B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$2.78BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.