MODEL VERDICT
Shutterstock, Inc. (SSTK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $16.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $16.67 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $39.74 | +138.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $21.90 | +31.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $33.13 | +98.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $33.92 | +103.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $30.75 | +84.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $68.29 | +309.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $67.85 | +306.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $25.07 | +50.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $34.98 | +109.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $40.48 | +142.5% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $11 | $14 | $17 | $19 | $22 |
| Conservative (5%) | $12 | $14 | $17 | $20 | $22 |
| Base Case (-8.7%) | $10 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
| Bull Case (-12%) | $10 | $12 | $14 | $17 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.75 | 30.05 | 15.28 | 75.23 | 20.79 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.47 | 20.54 | 7.57 | 63.00 | 18.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.69 | 11.70 | 4.14 | 24.61 | 6.88 |
| P/FCF | 18.14 | 20.11 | 5.59 | 23.07 | 6.30 |
| P/FFO | 15.81 | 13.33 | 5.08 | 29.42 | 9.02 |
| P/TBV | 16.28 | 8.50 | 7.18 | 33.15 | 14.63 |
| P/AFFO | 23.68 | 22.81 | 7.41 | 39.93 | 12.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.37 | 4.31 | 1.19 | 8.83 | 2.57 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.54 | 2.33 | 0.70 | 5.35 | 1.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates SSTK's fair value at $40.48 vs the current price of $16.69, implying +142.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $40.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.44 (P10) to $49.94 (P90), with a median of $42.48.
SSTK's current P/E of 13.4x compares to the industry median of 17.5x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -23.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.8x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
18 analysts cover SSTK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $67.00 (range: $55.00 — $90.00), implying +301.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SSTK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.