MODEL VERDICT
StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $11.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $9.29 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $9.86 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $9.98 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $8.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 2 analyst estimates | $9.34 | -18.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $11.52 | +0.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $11.14 | -2.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $13.51 | +17.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $14.13 | +23.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $10.09 | -12.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.47 | +0.1% | 100% | 50 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates STUB's fair value at $11.47 vs the current price of $11.46, implying +0.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 50/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.75 (P10) to $14.71 (P90), with a median of $11.11.
STUB's current P/E of -2.0x compares to the industry median of 35.3x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -105.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover STUB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $13.13 (range: $10.00 — $18.00), implying +14.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 50/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (22), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for STUB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.