MODEL VERDICT
Synchrony Financial (SYF-PB) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $26.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $26.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $25.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $25.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $26.37 | Pending | -2.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $100.06 | +283.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $69.11 | +164.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $55.90 | +114.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 32 industry peers | $31.76 | +21.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $105.60 | +304.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $77.25 | +195.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $79.88 | +205.8% | 100% | 68 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 5× | 7× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $35 | $35 | $35 | $44 | $62 |
| Conservative (6%) | $36 | $36 | $36 | $45 | $63 |
| Base Case (9.0%) | $37 | $37 | $37 | $47 | $65 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $38 | $38 | $38 | $48 | $67 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates SYF-PB's fair value at $79.88 vs the current price of $26.12, implying +205.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $79.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $58.56 (P10) to $98.52 (P90), with a median of $77.98.
SYF-PB's current P/E of 3.1x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (41 peers in the group). This represents a -73.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for SYF-PB.
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SYF-PB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2020.0% to approximately $31. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.