MODEL VERDICT
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $433.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $438.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $422.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $417.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $409.97 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $180.12 | -58.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $92.61 | -78.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $96.72 | -77.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $74.77 | -82.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $104.30 | -75.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $78.43 | -81.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $82.53 | -81.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $74.49 | -82.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $71.02 | -83.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $95.44 | -78.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $74.38 | -82.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $269.32 | -37.9% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 52× | 57× | 62× (Current) | 67× | 72× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $395 | $433 | $471 | $509 | $547 |
| Conservative (15%) | $416 | $455 | $495 | $535 | $575 |
| Base Case (22.5%) | $444 | $487 | $529 | $572 | $615 |
| Bull Case (30%) | $473 | $518 | $564 | $609 | $654 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 97.31 | 96.04 | 41.21 | 168.25 | 41.97 |
| EV/EBIT | 77.60 | 76.51 | 33.22 | 140.98 | 35.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 74.26 | 71.82 | 30.09 | 134.69 | 33.97 |
| P/FCF | 97.43 | 89.92 | 40.76 | 165.68 | 42.54 |
| P/FFO | 92.23 | 88.82 | 36.45 | 159.41 | 40.32 |
| P/TBV | 43.46 | 35.50 | 13.90 | 70.31 | 20.33 |
| P/AFFO | 277.59 | 100.44 | 40.93 | 1418.35 | 503.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 43.00 | 35.50 | 13.59 | 70.31 | 20.00 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 61.32 | 57.41 | 24.84 | 108.21 | 27.62 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TPL's fair value at $269.32 vs the current price of $433.62, implying -37.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $269.32 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $222.04 (P10) to $335.15 (P90), with a median of $277.94.
TPL's current P/E of 62.2x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +348.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 97.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
5 analysts cover TPL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $639.00 (range: $639.00 — $639.00), implying +47.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TPL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (78.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9770.0% to approximately $857. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.