MODEL VERDICT
Tuya Inc. (TUYA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $2.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $2.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $2.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $2.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $2.33 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $2.27 | -3.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $0.70 | -70.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $2.86 | +21.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $3.81 | +61.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $2.68 | +13.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $1.58 | -33.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $0.55 | -76.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $2.89 | +22.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.26 | -4.4% | 100% | 62 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 234× | 256× | 278× (Current) | 300× | 322× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $2 | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 |
| Conservative (7%) | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 1.55 | 1.21 | 1.06 | 2.75 | 0.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.55 | 1.21 | 1.05 | 2.75 | 0.80 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.07 | 5.32 | 3.54 | 10.12 | 2.83 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates TUYA's fair value at $2.26 vs the current price of $2.36, implying -4.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.26 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.99 (P10) to $2.47 (P90), with a median of $2.23.
TUYA's current P/E of 277.6x compares to the industry median of 82.8x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +235.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
2 analysts cover TUYA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $3.69 (range: $3.69 — $3.69), implying +56.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (22), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TUYA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.