MODEL VERDICT
Valvoline Inc. (VVV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $32.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $33.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $34.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $33.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $33.77 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $35.42 | +8.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $29.05 | -10.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $44.53 | +36.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $8.95 | -72.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $33.23 | +1.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $3.15 | -90.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $10.74 | -67.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $42.99 | +31.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $8.09 | -75.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $32.38 | -0.7% | 100% | 82 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $27 | $30 | $33 | $37 | $40 |
| Conservative (5%) | $28 | $31 | $34 | $38 | $41 |
| Base Case (-0.6%) | $26 | $29 | $33 | $36 | $39 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $26 | $29 | $33 | $36 | $39 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.40 | 16.28 | 4.30 | 22.47 | 5.79 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.53 | 23.88 | 14.61 | 37.54 | 8.14 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.44 | 23.14 | 11.51 | 29.27 | 7.70 |
| P/FCF | 51.75 | 30.72 | 15.62 | 116.45 | 44.20 |
| P/FFO | 12.99 | 12.15 | 4.05 | 22.34 | 5.44 |
| P/AFFO | 22.19 | 17.26 | 4.60 | 52.71 | 16.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 27.35 | 25.54 | 11.04 | 50.88 | 14.97 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.05 | 4.23 | 1.69 | 6.60 | 1.87 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates VVV's fair value at $32.38 vs the current price of $32.61, implying -0.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $32.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.40 (P10) to $34.94 (P90), with a median of $29.63.
VVV's current P/E of 19.9x compares to the industry median of 27.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -26.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.4x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
23 analysts cover VVV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $41.40 (range: $38.00 — $46.00), implying +27.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (7), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: VVV trades at the 5450th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VVV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (22.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 25920.0% to approximately $117. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.