MODEL VERDICT
Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (DRVN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $14.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $12.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $13.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $12.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $12.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $28.13 | +100.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $12.92 | -7.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $27.67 | +97.3% | 100% | 43 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 61.90 | 28.73 | 23.77 | 133.21 | 61.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.23 | 3.06 | 2.55 | 4.26 | 0.77 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.03 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 3.77 | 1.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 6 valuation metrics, the model estimates DRVN's fair value at $27.67 vs the current price of $14.03, implying +97.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 43/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $27.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.30 (P10) to $15.47 (P90), with a median of $13.35.
DRVN's current P/E of -7.7x compares to the industry median of 30.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -125.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
15 analysts cover DRVN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.00 (range: $11.00 — $23.00), implying +28.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 43/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DRVN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.