MODEL VERDICT
Wingstop Inc. (WING)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $160.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $189.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $196.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $191.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $179.89 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $110.87 | -31.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $106.85 | -33.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $156.28 | -2.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $115.11 | -28.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $112.28 | -30.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $107.22 | -33.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $736.76 | +358.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $72.69 | -54.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $80.56 | -49.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $156.28 | -2.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $141.51 | -12.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $228.69 | +42.3% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (21%) | $165 | $180 | $195 | $210 | $225 |
| Conservative (33%) | $182 | $199 | $215 | $232 | $249 |
| Base Case (51.4%) | $207 | $226 | $244 | $263 | $282 |
| Bull Case (69%) | $231 | $252 | $274 | $295 | $316 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 102.68 | 109.18 | 38.40 | 169.94 | 42.52 |
| EV/EBIT | 66.22 | 66.62 | 40.51 | 100.23 | 19.61 |
| EV/EBITDA | 56.06 | 59.07 | 35.84 | 68.51 | 12.60 |
| P/FCF | 112.79 | 79.02 | 63.39 | 248.09 | 67.87 |
| P/FFO | 83.45 | 91.84 | 33.59 | 128.16 | 31.17 |
| P/AFFO | 223.13 | 159.48 | 44.08 | 736.45 | 234.09 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 14.02 | 13.34 | 9.61 | 18.32 | 3.07 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates WING's fair value at $228.69 vs the current price of $160.73, implying +42.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $228.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $176.71 (P10) to $258.87 (P90), with a median of $217.34.
WING's current P/E of 25.9x compares to the industry median of 25.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +2.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 102.7x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
35 analysts cover WING with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $295.50 (range: $190.00 — $374.00), implying +83.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (19), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WING's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 50900.0% to approximately $979. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.