MODEL VERDICT
West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. (WST)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $300.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $306.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $273.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $266.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $256.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $106.68 | -64.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $167.34 | -44.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $145.90 | -51.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $136.18 | -54.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $174.12 | -42.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $184.43 | -38.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $247.67 | -17.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $123.80 | -58.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $89.26 | -70.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $155.00 | -48.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $137.64 | -54.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $219.97 | -26.8% | 100% | 86 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 36× | 40× | 44× (Current) | 48× | 52× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $253 | $281 | $309 | $337 | $365 |
| Conservative (5%) | $258 | $287 | $315 | $344 | $373 |
| Base Case (8.3%) | $265 | $295 | $324 | $353 | $383 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $272 | $302 | $333 | $363 | $393 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 46.78 | 46.83 | 30.45 | 61.99 | 10.01 |
| EV/EBIT | 38.73 | 37.44 | 25.11 | 51.70 | 8.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.97 | 30.62 | 19.53 | 40.12 | 7.40 |
| P/FCF | 65.99 | 63.97 | 40.60 | 108.24 | 25.26 |
| P/FFO | 36.69 | 36.29 | 25.25 | 47.17 | 7.69 |
| P/TBV | 9.89 | 9.41 | 6.54 | 16.25 | 3.45 |
| P/AFFO | 65.60 | 67.43 | 42.28 | 89.05 | 15.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.32 | 9.00 | 6.30 | 15.32 | 3.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.40 | 8.35 | 6.15 | 12.64 | 2.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates WST's fair value at $219.97 vs the current price of $300.68, implying -26.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $219.97 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $181.73 (P10) to $225.92 (P90), with a median of $203.40.
WST's current P/E of 44.2x compares to the industry median of 21.5x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +106.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 46.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
14 analysts cover WST with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $315.83 (range: $295.00 — $340.00), implying +5.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WST's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1320.0% to approximately $340. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.