MODEL VERDICT
Yext, Inc. (YEXT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $4.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $3.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $3.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $3.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $3.76 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $16.45 | +300.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $10.75 | +161.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $1.73 | -57.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $12.10 | +194.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $8.58 | +108.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $13.10 | +218.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $12.61 | +206.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $13.29 | +223.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $1.63 | -60.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $11.68 | +184.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.77 | +186.3% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 49× | 54× | 59× (Current) | 64× | 69× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $4 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 |
| Conservative (7%) | $4 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 | $5 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 | $5 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 42.34 | 21.24 | 10.02 | 99.00 | 37.82 |
| P/TBV | 6.09 | 5.89 | 4.03 | 8.99 | 1.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.65 | 5.73 | 3.35 | 8.73 | 1.77 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.68 | 2.14 | 1.20 | 5.88 | 1.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates YEXT's fair value at $11.77 vs the current price of $4.11, implying +186.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.20 (P10) to $13.13 (P90), with a median of $11.07.
YEXT's current P/E of 58.7x compares to the industry median of 24.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +137.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
17 analysts cover YEXT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $8.20 (range: $7.00 — $10.50), implying +99.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for YEXT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.