MODEL VERDICT
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $26.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $25.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $27.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $26.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $26.30 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $100.19 | +281.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $40.15 | +52.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $126.62 | +381.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $38.94 | +48.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $135.64 | +416.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $97.09 | +269.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $122.21 | +365.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $30.09 | +14.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $104.68 | +298.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $58.38 | +122.1% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $16 | $20 | $28 | $37 | $45 |
| Conservative (5%) | $17 | $21 | $29 | $38 | $46 |
| Base Case (-1.6%) | $16 | $20 | $27 | $35 | $43 |
| Bull Case (-2%) | $16 | $19 | $27 | $35 | $43 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 2.12 | 1.36 | 0.45 | 5.33 | 2.19 |
| EV/EBIT | 3.42 | 2.11 | 0.86 | 8.58 | 3.53 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.53 | 2.01 | 0.72 | 5.21 | 1.80 |
| P/FCF | 1.08 | 1.31 | 0.36 | 1.59 | 0.52 |
| P/FFO | 0.97 | 1.04 | 0.34 | 1.45 | 0.50 |
| P/TBV | 0.74 | 0.65 | 0.36 | 1.55 | 0.47 |
| P/AFFO | 1.11 | 1.21 | 0.37 | 1.65 | 0.62 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.73 | 0.64 | 0.35 | 1.52 | 0.46 |
| Div Yield | 0.55 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 1.60 | 0.62 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.34 | 0.31 | 0.16 | 0.65 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates ZIM's fair value at $58.38 vs the current price of $26.28, implying +122.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $58.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $49.85 (P10) to $76.53 (P90), with a median of $62.82.
ZIM's current P/E of 6.6x compares to the industry median of 10.1x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -34.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 2.1x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover ZIM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $14.80 (range: $9.70 — $21.00), implying -43.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (3), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ZIM trades at the 3200th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (2.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ZIM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (17.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1880.0% to approximately $21. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.