Upside case
Bull case
$297+5928.0%
GGB would need investors to value it at roughly 116x earnings — about 114x more generous than today's 2x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Gerdau S.A. (GGB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
10
analysts
7 bullish · 2 bearish · 10 covering GGB
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
1
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$5
+6.5% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $297
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
10
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
1.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.9B
GGB price targets
Three scenarios for where GGB stock could go
Current
~$5
Confidence
32 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $5
Base
$56
Bull
$297
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$56+1042.6%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Gerdau S.A.
GGB · NYSEBasic MaterialsSteelDecember year-end
Gerdau is a global steel producer that manufactures and sells a wide range of steel products—from semi-finished billets and slabs to finished long rolled products, special steels, and flat products—primarily serving construction, manufacturing, and automotive industries. It generates revenue through its four geographic segments—Brazil (~40% of sales), North America (~35%), South America (~15%), and Special Steel (~10%)—selling through distributors, direct mill sales, and retail channels. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated production model—controlling everything from iron ore mining to finished steel—and its extensive distribution network across the Americas, which provides cost efficiency and market access.
Market Cap
$9.9B
Revenue TTM
$69.9B
Net Income TTM
$1.4B
Net Margin
2.0%
GGB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-13.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.08/$0.09
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.10/$0.11
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.07/$0.11
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.10/$0.15
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.08/$0.09 | -11.1% | $3.2B/$3.3B | -1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.10/$0.11 | -9.1% | $3.4B/$3.1B | +9.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.07/$0.11 | -36.4% | $3.3B/$3.2B | +4.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.10/$0.15 | -33.3% | $3.3B/$3.4B | -0.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$71.7B
+2.6% YoY
FY2
$73.6B
+2.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.29
+83.5% YoY
FY2
$1.60
+23.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.2B
FCF Margin: 1.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
GGB beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
GGB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $64.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
55.7%
-5.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
North America is the largest reported region at 55.7%, down 5.1% YoY.
GGB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $24 — implies +442.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
442.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GGB
35.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+40% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
GGB
35.3x
vs
Basic Materials
22.9x
+54% premium
vs GGB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
35.3x
vs
5Y Average
1.8x
+1868% premium
Forward PE
1.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-90%
Basic Materials
15.4x
-88%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
35.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
+40%
Basic Materials
22.9x
+54%
5Y Avg
1.8x
+1868%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Basic Materials
1.22x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
-60%
Basic Materials
11.4x
-46%
5Y Avg
1.3x
+385%
Price/FCF
37.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
+75%
Basic Materials
27.5x
+36%
5Y Avg
2.0x
+1726%
Price/Sales
0.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-78%
Basic Materials
2.0x
-64%
5Y Avg
0.1x
+587%
Dividend Yield
2.63%
S&P 500
1.88%
+40%
Basic Materials
1.37%
+92%
5Y Avg
17.33%
-85%
| Metric | GGB | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg GGB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 1.9x | 19.1x-90% | 15.4x-88% | — |
| Trailing PE | 35.3x | 25.2x+40% | 22.9x+54% | 1.8x+1868% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.22x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.1x | 15.3x-60% | 11.4x-46% | 1.3x+385% |
| Price/FCF | 37.4x | 21.3x+75% | 27.5x+36% | 2.0x+1726% |
| Price/Sales | 0.7x | 3.1x-78% | 2.0x-64% | 0.1x+587% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.63% | 1.88% | 1.37% | 17.33% |
GGB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGGB Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
GGB returns 5.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$69.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
11.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.70
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$9.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
8.2× FCF
~8.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
2.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.0%
Dividend
2.6%
Buyback
2.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.64
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
92.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageGGB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Finance & Corporate
Gerdau faces potential conflicts of interest between controlling and non-controlling shareholders, which could impact decision-making. Additionally, the company risks losing its investment grade ratings, potentially increasing its cost of capital and impairing its ability to secure financing.
High Risk
Macro & Political
Restrictive trade measures on steel products, such as quotas and tariffs, could significantly affect Gerdau's business by increasing product prices or reducing export capabilities. The company is also vulnerable to global economic crises, similar to the 2008 financial crisis, which previously led to a decline in steel product demand.
Medium
Production Risks
Gerdau's manufacturing operations are subject to risks that could lead to disruptions and increased costs. Ongoing projects may also face challenges that could delay implementation and escalate expenses.
Medium
Legal & Regulatory
The company is exposed to regulatory risks, including potential impacts from changing government policies and regulations that could affect its operations and profitability.
Lower
Ability to Sell
Gerdau's ability to sell its products may be hindered by competition and trade restrictions, which could limit market access and affect revenue.
Lower
Share Price & Shareholder Rights
There are risks related to share price volatility and shareholder rights, including potential conflicts of interest that could affect shareholder value.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GGB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Earnings Performance
Gerdau reported robust first-quarter 2026 (1Q26) earnings, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 25% quarter-over-quarter to R$3.0 billion. This performance has reset the tone around the company's fundamentals and is driving positive price action.
Analyst Upgrades and Price Targets
Following the strong earnings, several analysts have upgraded their ratings and price targets for GGB. JPMorgan raised its target to $5.50 with an Overweight rating, while UBS and Itau BBA reiterated or upgraded their Buy/Outperform calls with targets around $4.60.
Operational Improvements and Sustainability
Gerdau has commissioned a large solar complex, which is expected to contribute to long-term cost reductions and sustainability gains, positively impacting its margins. Additionally, operational adjustments are anticipated to reduce costs per ton, further aiding margin recovery.
Market Resilience and Diversification
Gerdau's U.S. operations are noted for their strength and are safeguarded by protectionism, helping to mitigate risks associated with steel cycles and challenges in the Brazilian market. Recent Brazilian anti-dumping duties and import quotas are also expected to bolster domestic steel demand.
Shareholder Returns
Gerdau pays an annual dividend of $0.10, yielding 2.38%, with a sustainable payout ratio. The company has also seen a decrease in its outstanding shares by 4.13% over the past year.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GGB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$4.93
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$2.49
+98.0% from the low
52-Week High
$4.98
-1.0% from the high
1 Month
+31.12%
3 Month
+16.82%
YTD
+30.4%
1 Year
+92.6%
3Y CAGR
+6.1%
5Y CAGR
-1.9%
10Y CAGR
+11.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GGB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
1.9x
vs 16.5x median
-88% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.6%
vs +3.7% median
-30% below peer median
Net Margin
2.0%
vs 5.5% median
-64% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GGB GGB Gerdau S.A. | $9.9B | 1.9x | +2.6% | 2.0% | Buy | +6.5% |
NUE NUE Nucor Corporation | $53.3B | 16.7x | +4.4% | 6.8% | Buy | -4.9% |
STL STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc. | $35.0B | 16.2x | +6.0% | 7.2% | Buy | -22.1% |
CLF CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $6.4B | — | +3.7% | -7.9% | Hold | -0.4% |
RS RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $19.2B | 19.3x | +3.0% | 5.4% | Hold | -3.8% |
CMC CMC Commercial Metals Company | $8.0B | 11.0x | +2.4% | 5.5% | Buy | +14.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GGB Dividend and Capital Return
GGB returns 5.0% total yield, led by a 2.63% dividend. Buybacks add another 2.4%.
Dividend At RiskFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
5.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.4%
Dividend Yield
2.63%
Payout Ratio
92.7%
How GGB Splits Its Return
Div 2.63%
Buyback 2.4%
Dividend 2.63%Buybacks 2.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.64
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-41.6%
5Y Div CAGR
18.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
237M
Approx. Share Reduction
11.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.0B
At 11.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.11 | -21.8% | 15.8% | 33.1% |
| 2024 | $0.14 | -46.3% | 19.8% | 47.2% |
| 2023 | $0.27 | -52.6% | 0.0% | 31.4% |
| 2022 | $0.56 | +25.3% | 13.2% | 85.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsGGB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Gerdau S.A. (GGB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Gerdau S.A. (GGB) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 10 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $5, implying +6.5% from the current price of $5.
02What is the GGB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GGB is $5 based on 10 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $5 (+6.5% from today), and the low-end target is $5 (+6.5%). The base case model target is $56.
03Is Gerdau S.A. (GGB) stock overvalued in 2026?
GGB trades at 1.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Gerdau S.A. (GGB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GGB in 2026 are: (1) Finance & Corporate — Gerdau faces potential conflicts of interest between controlling and non-controlling shareholders, which could impact decision-making. (2) Macro & Political — Restrictive trade measures on steel products, such as quotas and tariffs, could significantly affect Gerdau's business by increasing product prices or reducing export capabilities. (3) Production Risks — Gerdau's manufacturing operations are subject to risks that could lead to disruptions and increased costs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Gerdau S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GGB will report consensus revenue of $71.7B (+2.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.29 (+83.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $73.6B in revenue.
06When does Gerdau S.A. (GGB) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for GGB is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Gerdau S.A. generate?
Gerdau S.A. (GGB) generated $1.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.7%. GGB returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.6% yield) and share repurchases ($1.2B TTM).