Upside case
Bull case
$41+170.3%
PBR-A would need investors to value it at roughly 10x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 4x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
23
analysts
10 bullish · 3 bearish · 23 covering PBR-A
Strong Buy
0
Buy
10
Hold
10
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$19 – $41
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
23
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
3.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $96.6B
PBR-A price targets
Three scenarios for where PBR-A stock could go
Current
~$15
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $15
Bear
$19
Base
$31
Bull
$41
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$31+105.1%
At 7x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$19+29.2%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push PBR-A down roughly 29% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras
PBR-A · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
Petrobras is a Brazilian state-controlled integrated oil and gas company that explores, produces, refines, and distributes petroleum products. It generates revenue primarily from upstream oil and gas production (roughly 60% of operating income) and downstream refining and marketing operations (about 30%), with the remainder from gas and power distribution. The company's key advantage is its dominant position in Brazil's deepwater pre-salt oil fields—among the world's most productive and lowest-cost reserves—combined with its integrated infrastructure and government-backed monopoly on certain operations.
Market Cap
$96.6B
Revenue TTM
$90.8B
Net Income TTM
$20.1B
Net Margin
22.1%
PBR-A Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
36%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-14.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.73/$0.65
Revenue
$21.0B/$128.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.94/$0.70
Revenue
$23.5B/$23.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.46/$0.58
Revenue
$23.6B/$23.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.99/$0.96
Revenue
$23.5B/$26.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.73/$0.65 | +12.6% | $21.0B/$128.3B | -83.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.94/$0.70 | +33.0% | $23.5B/$23.9B | -1.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.46/$0.58 | -19.9% | $23.6B/$23.0B | +2.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.99/$0.96 | +2.4% | $23.5B/$26.4B | -11.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$101.7B
+12.0% YoY
FY2
$110.6B
+8.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.60
+15.5% YoY
FY2
$3.84
+6.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$16.1B
FCF Margin: 17.8%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.25
Expected Revenue
$32.4B
PBR-A beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
PBR-A Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2017
Total disclosed revenue $113.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil Products
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Foreign Market
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Oil Products is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2017 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Foreign Market is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
PBR-A Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $45 — implies +199.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
199.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PBR-A
4.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
80% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
PBR-A
4.8x
vs
Energy
15.5x
69% discount
vs PBR-A 5Y Avg P/E
Today
4.8x
vs
5Y Average
4.8x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
3.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
-81%
Energy
12.5x
-72%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
4.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
-80%
Energy
15.5x
-69%
5Y Avg
4.8x
+1%
PEG Ratio
0.06x
S&P 500
1.66x
-96%
Energy
0.52x
-88%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
3.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-75%
Energy
7.8x
-51%
5Y Avg
2.7x
+41%
Price/FCF
5.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-72%
Energy
13.8x
-58%
5Y Avg
2.9x
+100%
Price/Sales
1.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-66%
Energy
1.4x
-25%
5Y Avg
0.8x
+38%
Dividend Yield
8.54%
S&P 500
1.91%
+346%
Energy
3.47%
+146%
5Y Avg
16.99%
-50%
| Metric | PBR-A | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg PBR-A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 3.5x | 18.8x-81% | 12.5x-72% | — |
| Trailing PE | 4.8x | 24.4x-80% | 15.5x-69% | 4.8x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.06x | 1.66x-96% | 0.52x-88% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.9x | 15.2x-75% | 7.8x-51% | 2.7x+41% |
| Price/FCF | 5.8x | 20.7x-72% | 13.8x-58% | 2.9x+100% |
| Price/Sales | 1.1x | 3.1x-66% | 1.4x-25% | 0.8x+38% |
| Dividend Yield | 8.54% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 16.99% |
PBR-A trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPBR-A Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
PBR-A generates $16.1B in free cash flow at a 17.8% margin — 15.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 8.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$90.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-0.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
47.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
28.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
22.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.12
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$16.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
17.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$6.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$63.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.9× FCF
~3.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
26.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.5%
Dividend
8.5%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.28
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
41.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
6.4B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePBR-A Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Oil price downside exposure
Petrobras is considered a clean way to position for oil downside, indicating high sensitivity to declining oil prices.
Medium
Valuation de-rating
The bear case price target of $11 suggests potential downside risk if forward EPS estimates deteriorate.
Medium
Political interference risk
Historical government influence on Petrobras' operations could resurface, impacting strategic decisions.
Lower
Dividend sustainability
Potential volatility in oil prices may affect the company's ability to maintain consistent dividend payouts.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PBR-A Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Attractive valuation metrics
Petrobras's trailing and forward P/E ratios of 7.13 and 5.92 respectively indicate the stock is undervalued compared to historical and industry standards.
Strong price target upside
Scenario-based modeling suggests a bull case price target of $24, representing significant upside from current trading levels.
Compelling forward P/E
The forward P/E ratio of 4.33 as of July 22nd highlights Petrobras's earnings growth potential at an attractive valuation.
Bullish analyst coverage
Multiple independent research platforms have published bullish theses on Petrobras, highlighting its investment potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PBR-A Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$14.99
52W Range Position
46%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$10.76
+39.3% from the low
52-Week High
$20.05
-25.2% from the high
1 Month
-19.58%
3 Month
-16.35%
YTD
+32.3%
1 Year
+25.6%
3Y CAGR
+5.5%
5Y CAGR
+6.2%
10Y CAGR
+10.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PBR-A vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
3.5x
vs 7.8x median
-55% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+12.0%
vs +5.2% median
+130% above peer median
Net Margin
22.1%
vs 7.0% median
+216% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PBR PBR-A Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | $96.6B | 3.5x | +12.0% | 22.1% | Buy | — |
XOM XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation | $584.0B | 12.5x | +5.2% | 8.9% | Hold | +23.4% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $346.5B | 12.1x | +8.6% | 6.7% | Buy | +15.3% |
SHE SHEL Shell plc | $222.2B | 7.8x | +6.8% | 7.0% | Buy | +28.9% |
BP BP BP p.l.c. | $102.1B | 7.4x | +3.8% | 1.6% | Hold | +9.6% |
TTE TTE TotalEnergies SE | $179.1B | 7.3x | +2.4% | 8.2% | Buy | -5.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PBR-A Dividend and Capital Return
PBR-A returns 8.5% total yield, led by a 8.54% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
8.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
8.54%
Payout Ratio
41.0%
How PBR-A Splits Its Return
Div 8.54%
Dividend 8.54%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.28
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-42.8%
5Y Div CAGR
482.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
6.4B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.21 | -57.1% | 0.0% | 11.4% |
| 2024 | $2.82 | -5.2% | 0.5% | 24.5% |
| 2023 | $2.98 | -53.8% | 0.7% | 20.5% |
| 2022 | $6.45 | +216.0% | 0.0% | 62.2% |
FAQ
6 questionsPBR-A Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 23 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The bear case scenario is $19 and the bull case is $41.
02Is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) stock overvalued in 2026?
PBR-A trades at 3.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PBR-A in 2026 are: (1) Oil price downside exposure — Petrobras is considered a clean way to position for oil downside, indicating high sensitivity to declining oil prices. (2) Valuation de-rating — The bear case price target of $11 suggests potential downside risk if forward EPS estimates deteriorate. (3) Political interference risk — Historical government influence on Petrobras' operations could resurface, impacting strategic decisions. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PBR-A will report consensus revenue of $101.7B (+12.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.60 (+15.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $110.6B in revenue.
05When does Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) report its next earnings?
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.25 and revenue of $32.4B. Over recent quarters, PBR-A has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
06How much free cash flow does Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras generate?
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) generated $16.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 17.8%. PBR-A returns capital to shareholders through dividends (8.5% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).