Upside case
Bull case
$243+1168.2%
PBR-A would need investors to value it at roughly 63x earnings — about 58x more generous than today's 5x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
23
analysts
10 bullish · 3 bearish · 23 covering PBR-A
Strong Buy
0
Buy
10
Hold
10
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$23 – $243
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
23
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
5.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $52.2B
PBR-A price targets
Three scenarios for where PBR-A stock could go
Current
~$19
Confidence
34 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $19
Bear
$23
Base
$86
Bull
$243
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$86+348.7%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$23+19.9%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push PBR-A down roughly 20% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras
PBR-A · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
Petrobras is a Brazilian state-controlled integrated oil and gas company that explores, produces, refines, and distributes petroleum products. It generates revenue primarily from upstream oil and gas production (roughly 60% of operating income) and downstream refining and marketing operations (about 30%), with the remainder from gas and power distribution. The company's key advantage is its dominant position in Brazil's deepwater pre-salt oil fields—among the world's most productive and lowest-cost reserves—combined with its integrated infrastructure and government-backed monopoly on certain operations.
Market Cap
$52.2B
Revenue TTM
$86.4B
Net Income TTM
$14.0B
Net Margin
16.2%
PBR-A Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
55%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
40%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-15.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.73/$0.65
Revenue
$21.0B/$20.8B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.73/$0.65
Revenue
$21.0B/$128.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.94/$0.70
Revenue
$23.5B/$23.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.46/$0.58
Revenue
$23.6B/$23.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.73/$0.65 | +12.6% | $21.0B/$20.8B | +1.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.73/$0.65 | +12.6% | $21.0B/$128.3B | -83.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.94/$0.70 | +33.0% | $23.5B/$23.9B | -1.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.46/$0.58 | -19.9% | $23.6B/$23.0B | +2.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$86.1B
-0.3% YoY
FY2
$81.9B
-4.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.85
+124.0% YoY
FY2
$4.71
-2.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$16.7B
FCF Margin: 19.4%
Next Earnings
May 11, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.90
Expected Revenue
$26.3B
PBR-A beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
PBR-A Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2017
Total disclosed revenue $113.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil Products
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Foreign Market
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Oil Products is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2017 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Foreign Market is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
PBR-A Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $46 — implies +134.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
134.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PBR-A
18.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
28% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
PBR-A
18.3x
vs
Energy
16.9x
+8% premium
vs PBR-A 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.3x
vs
5Y Average
17.1x
+7% premium
Forward PE
5.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-74%
Energy
13.2x
-62%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
-28%
Energy
16.9x
+8%
5Y Avg
17.1x
+7%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
2.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-81%
Energy
8.1x
-65%
5Y Avg
2.9x
-3%
Price/FCF
2.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
-90%
Energy
14.1x
-84%
5Y Avg
2.6x
-15%
Price/Sales
0.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-82%
Energy
1.6x
-63%
5Y Avg
0.9x
-35%
Dividend Yield
14.82%
S&P 500
1.88%
+689%
Energy
2.97%
+399%
5Y Avg
13.83%
+7%
| Metric | PBR-A | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg PBR-A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 5.0x | 19.1x-74% | 13.2x-62% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.3x | 25.2x-28% | 16.9x | 17.1x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.9x | 15.3x-81% | 8.1x-65% | 2.9x |
| Price/FCF | 2.2x | 21.3x-90% | 14.1x-84% | 2.6x-15% |
| Price/Sales | 0.6x | 3.1x-82% | 1.6x-63% | 0.9x-35% |
| Dividend Yield | 14.82% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 13.83% |
PBR-A trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPBR-A Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
PBR-A generates $16.7B in free cash flow at a 19.4% margin — 15.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 15.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$86.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-11.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
48.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
25.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
16.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.17
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$16.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
19.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$57.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.4× FCF
~3.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
15.5%
Dividend
14.8%
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$380M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.84
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
243.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.7B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePBR-A Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
High Leverage
Petrobras carries a high debt load relative to its equity, increasing the risk of financial distress if cash flows falter. Elevated leverage magnifies the impact of any decline in oil prices or production, potentially forcing asset sales or restructuring.
High Risk
Liquidity Constraints
The company’s liquidity ratios, including a low current ratio and quick ratio, signal limited ability to meet short‑term obligations. Tight liquidity could force Petrobras to tap high‑cost funding or delay capital projects during market downturns.
High Risk
Oil Price Volatility
Petrobras’ revenue is highly sensitive to crude oil and natural gas prices, which have fluctuated sharply in recent years. A sustained drop in oil prices could erode margins, reduce free cash flow, and impair dividend payouts.
High Risk
Financial Health Concerns
Indicators such as a low Altman Z‑Score and weak liquidity ratios suggest a heightened probability of financial distress. These metrics raise concerns about the company’s capacity to service debt and fund operations during adverse conditions.
High Risk
Currency Devaluation
The volatility of the Brazilian real exposes Petrobras to significant foreign‑exchange risk, as a devaluation would increase the cost of imported equipment and reduce the value of foreign‑currency denominated debt. Currency swings can also compress earnings reported in USD.
Medium
Government Influence
As the Brazilian government holds a majority stake, it can influence capital allocation and dividend decisions. Political priorities may not align with shareholder interests, potentially limiting returns or altering strategic direction.
Medium
Geopolitical Instability
Regional tensions, such as those involving Venezuela, and broader geopolitical events can disrupt supply chains, affect oil prices, and create operational uncertainties. Such instability may also impact investor sentiment and market liquidity.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PBR-A Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Earnings & Cash Flow Resilience
Petrobras has maintained mid‑single‑digit declines in cash flow and earnings even when Brent crude prices fell by double digits. This demonstrates strong operational resilience and effective cost management during volatile market conditions.
Attractive Dividend Yield & Policy
The company offers a dividend yield approaching 6% and distributes 45% of its free cash flow. Rising Brent prices could trigger special dividends, further enhancing shareholder returns.
Undervalued Valuation Metrics
Petrobras trades at a trailing P/E of 6.67 and a forward P/E of 7.46, with an EV/EBITDA of 5.30. Its price‑to‑free‑cash‑flow ratio is also considered attractive relative to peers.
High‑Quality Pre‑Salt Asset Base
Pre‑salt assets are a key growth driver, underpinning resilient cash flow. Petrobras is strengthening its upstream portfolio, recently gaining full control over key Campos Basin fields.
Accelerating Production Growth
Petrobras leads Brazil’s oil production growth, with production rebounding strongly in late 2025 and projected to rise further in 2026. This acceleration supports future revenue expansion.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PBR-A Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$19.18
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$10.33
+85.7% from the low
52-Week High
$20.05
-4.3% from the high
1 Month
+1.11%
3 Month
+36.12%
YTD
+69.3%
1 Year
+81.6%
3Y CAGR
+25.1%
5Y CAGR
+16.6%
10Y CAGR
+12.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PBR-A vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
5.0x
vs 8.9x median
-44% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-0.3%
vs +3.3% median
-110% below peer median
Net Margin
16.2%
vs 6.7% median
+142% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PBR PBR-A Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | $52.2B | 5.0x | -0.3% | 16.2% | Buy | — |
XOM XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation | $629.6B | 15.0x | +7.0% | 8.9% | Hold | +8.0% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $369.4B | 15.2x | +10.2% | 6.7% | Buy | +3.1% |
SHE SHEL Shell plc | $246.8B | 8.9x | +3.3% | 6.7% | Buy | +8.6% |
BP BP BP p.l.c. | $116.5B | 8.7x | +2.9% | 1.6% | Hold | -1.7% |
TTE TTE TotalEnergies SE | $200.3B | 8.5x | -2.2% | 8.2% | Buy | -16.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PBR-A Dividend and Capital Return
PBR-A returns 15.5% total yield, led by a 14.82% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.7%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
15.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
14.82%
Payout Ratio
2.4%
How PBR-A Splits Its Return
Div 14.82%
Dividend 14.82%Buybacks 0.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.84
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-42.7%
5Y Div CAGR
482.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$380M
Estimated Shares Retired
20M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.7B
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.12 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.21 | -57.1% | — | — |
| 2024 | $2.82 | -5.2% | 0.5% | 24.5% |
| 2023 | $2.98 | -53.8% | 0.7% | 20.5% |
| 2022 | $6.45 | +215.9% | 0.0% | 62.2% |
FAQ
6 questionsPBR-A Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 23 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The bear case scenario is $23 and the bull case is $243.
02Is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) stock overvalued in 2026?
PBR-A trades at 5.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PBR-A in 2026 are: (1) High Leverage — Petrobras carries a high debt load relative to its equity, increasing the risk of financial distress if cash flows falter. (2) Liquidity Constraints — The company’s liquidity ratios, including a low current ratio and quick ratio, signal limited ability to meet short‑term obligations. (3) Oil Price Volatility — Petrobras’ revenue is highly sensitive to crude oil and natural gas prices, which have fluctuated sharply in recent years. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PBR-A will report consensus revenue of $86.1B (-0.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.85 (+124.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $81.9B in revenue.
05When does Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) report its next earnings?
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-11. Consensus expects EPS of $0.90 and revenue of $26.3B. Over recent quarters, PBR-A has beaten EPS estimates 55% of the time.
06How much free cash flow does Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras generate?
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) generated $16.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 19.4%. PBR-A returns capital to shareholders through dividends (14.8% yield) and share repurchases ($380M TTM).