Upside case
Bull case
$257+479.8%
ALLY would need investors to value it at roughly 48x earnings — about 40x more generous than today's 8x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
38
analysts
26 bullish · 1 bearish · 38 covering ALLY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
26
Hold
11
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$53
+20.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$28 – $257
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
38
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.7B
ALLY price targets
Three scenarios for where ALLY stock could go
Current
~$44
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $44
Bear
$28
Base
$58
Bull
$257
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$58+31.8%
At 11x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$28-37.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push ALLY down roughly 37% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ally Financial Inc.
ALLY · NYSEFinancial ServicesFinancial - Credit ServicesDecember year-end
Ally Financial is a digital financial services company that provides consumer and commercial banking products primarily through online channels. It generates revenue mainly from automotive financing (roughly 70% of total revenue) and insurance operations, supplemented by mortgage lending and corporate finance services. The company's key advantage is its low-cost digital-only operating model—without physical branches—which allows it to offer competitive rates while maintaining strong customer loyalty in its core auto lending business.
Market Cap
$13.7B
Net Income TTM
$852M
ALLY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+26.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.99/$0.81
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.15/$1.00
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.09/$1.01
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.11/$0.93
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.99/$0.81 | +21.9% | $2.3B/$2.0B | +12.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.15/$1.00 | +15.0% | $2.4B/$2.1B | +12.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09/$1.01 | +7.9% | $2.1B/$2.1B | -1.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.11/$0.93 | +19.4% | $2.1B/$2.1B | -1.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.0B
-25.9% YoY
FY2
$7.5B
-16.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.56
+31.4% YoY
FY2
$3.12
-12.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$295M
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ALLY beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ALLY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $16.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Total financing revenue and other interest income
86.8%
+1.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Total financing revenue and other interest income is the largest disclosed segment at 86.8% of FY 2024 revenue, up 1.9% YoY.
ALLY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $58 — implies +34.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
34.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ALLY
18.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
26% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
ALLY
18.7x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+40% premium
vs ALLY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.7x
vs
5Y Average
12.5x
+50% premium
Forward PE
8.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-56%
Financial Services
10.5x
-21%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-26%
Financial Services
13.4x
+40%
5Y Avg
12.5x
+50%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Financial Services
1.03x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-15%
Financial Services
11.4x
+13%
5Y Avg
9.1x
+42%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
6.4x
—
Price/Sales
1.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-64%
Financial Services
2.3x
-50%
5Y Avg
1.0x
+17%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Financial Services
2.68%
—
5Y Avg
3.39%
—
| Metric | ALLY | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg ALLY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.3x | 19.1x-56% | 10.5x-21% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.7x | 25.2x-26% | 13.4x+40% | 12.5x+50% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.03x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.9x | 15.3x-15% | 11.4x+13% | 9.1x+42% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 10.6x | 6.4x |
| Price/Sales | 1.1x | 3.1x-64% | 2.3x-50% | 1.0x+17% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.68% | 3.39% |
ALLY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolALLY Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
ALLY generates 5.5% ROE and 0.4% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.71
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
5.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$10.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$11.7B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
5.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
314M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageALLY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Concentration in Auto Lending
Ally's reliance on auto financing, which makes up over 70% of its loan book, poses a significant concentration risk. This heavy focus on auto lending increases vulnerability to sector downturns and shifts in consumer preferences.
High Risk
Rising Auto Loan Delinquencies
The moderation in auto loan delinquencies remains a critical risk, as a sustained rise could lead to increased loan loss provisions. This would negatively impact profitability and capital buffers, particularly given Ally's exposure to nonprime consumer automotive loans.
High Risk
Economic and Market Disruptions
Ally is exposed to broader economic uncertainties, including interest rate fluctuations and economic downturns, which can severely affect profitability. The company's hedging strategies do not fully mitigate interest rate risks, and previous sharp increases in rates have adversely impacted its financial performance.
Medium
Competitive Landscape
Ally faces intense competition from traditional banks, credit unions, and fintech startups, which may offer more favorable terms due to exclusive arrangements with auto manufacturers. This competitive pressure could threaten Ally's market share.
Medium
Regulatory Challenges
The financial services sector is heavily regulated, and Ally may face increased capital and liquidity requirements. Heightened supervisory expectations and potential enforcement actions could disrupt its business operations.
Medium
Indebtedness
Ally's significant indebtedness, apart from deposit liabilities, poses a risk to its financial stability. High levels of debt can adversely affect business operations and financial results.
Lower
Deposit Stability
Seasonal fluctuations in deposit balances may be exacerbated by negative media coverage or industry-wide concerns, potentially leading to sudden withdrawals. This could impact liquidity and operational stability.
Lower
Electrification and Tariffs
The automotive sector's transition to electric vehicles and potential tariffs present new challenges for Ally. These factors could impact profitability and operational strategies.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ALLY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Auto Loan Portfolio Strength
Ally demonstrates a stable growth trajectory in its consumer auto loan portfolio, which has shown resilience. The company also handled a record number of consumer auto loan applications, indicating robust demand.
Margin Improvement and Profitability
Ally is expected to benefit from an improving net interest margin (NIM) and enhancements in retail auto credit, driving higher returns and earnings through 2025. The company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) saw a significant jump in 2025, attributed to higher yields on auto loans and lower deposit costs.
Diversified Revenue Streams
The core insurance line has shown strong performance, contributing to the diversification and stability of Ally's revenue.
Digital Banking Leadership
Ally has positioned itself as a leading digital bank with a growing deposit customer base, marking its 17th consecutive year of growth. Its substantial retail deposit base provides a stable and low-cost funding source.
Shareholder Returns
Ally announced a quarterly dividend and has a share buyback program, reflecting confidence in its future performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ALLY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$44.30
52W Range Position
80%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$32.28
+37.2% from the low
52-Week High
$47.27
-6.3% from the high
1 Month
+9.87%
3 Month
+4.70%
YTD
-3.2%
1 Year
+36.1%
3Y CAGR
+20.9%
5Y CAGR
-3.5%
10Y CAGR
+9.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ALLY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.3x
vs 9.8x median
-15% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-25.9%
vs +2.2% median
-1271% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALL ALLY Ally Financial Inc. | $13.7B | 8.3x | -25.9% | — | Buy | +20.4% |
COF COF Capital One Financial Corporation | $119.7B | 9.8x | +11.8% | — | Buy | +38.1% |
SYF SYF Synchrony Financial | $26.1B | 8.1x | -14.2% | — | Buy | +20.5% |
OMF OMF OneMain Holdings, Inc. | $6.5B | 7.6x | +2.0% | — | Buy | +24.7% |
AXP AXP American Express Company | $220.8B | 18.3x | +2.2% | — | Hold | +16.0% |
CAC CACC Credit Acceptance Corporation | $5.6B | 11.7x | +6.1% | — | Hold | +0.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ALLY Dividend and Capital Return
ALLY does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.20
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
9.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
314M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.20 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | $1.20 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 3.7% |
| 2023 | $1.20 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 3.8% |
| 2022 | $1.20 | +36.4% | 21.2% | 26.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsALLY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 38 analysts covering the stock, 26 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $53, implying +20.4% from the current price of $44. The bear case scenario is $28 and the bull case is $257.
02What is the ALLY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ALLY is $53 based on 38 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $57 (+28.7% from today), and the low-end target is $48 (+8.4%). The base case model target is $58.
03Is Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) stock overvalued in 2026?
ALLY trades at 8.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ALLY in 2026 are: (1) Concentration in Auto Lending — Ally's reliance on auto financing, which makes up over 70% of its loan book, poses a significant concentration risk. (2) Rising Auto Loan Delinquencies — The moderation in auto loan delinquencies remains a critical risk, as a sustained rise could lead to increased loan loss provisions. (3) Economic and Market Disruptions — Ally is exposed to broader economic uncertainties, including interest rate fluctuations and economic downturns, which can severely affect profitability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ally Financial Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ALLY will report consensus revenue of $9.0B (-25.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.56 (+31.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.5B in revenue.
06When does Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ALLY is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Ally Financial Inc. generate?
Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) had a free cash outflow of $295M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. ALLY returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).