MODEL VERDICT
Alexander's, Inc. (ALX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $244.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $243.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $252.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $244.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $247.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $484.64 | +98.3% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $26.75 | -89.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $151.63 | -37.9% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $379.45 | +55.3% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $272.76 | +11.6% | 100% | 64 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 36× | 40× | 44× (Current) | 48× | 52× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $202 | $224 | $247 | $269 | $292 |
| Conservative (5%) | $208 | $231 | $254 | $277 | $300 |
| Base Case (-7.7%) | $183 | $203 | $223 | $244 | $264 |
| Bull Case (-10%) | $178 | $197 | $217 | $237 | $257 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.03 | 23.65 | 10.03 | 79.79 | 24.15 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.11 | 21.53 | 13.04 | 29.80 | 5.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.95 | 16.89 | 11.02 | 18.25 | 2.68 |
| P/FCF | 14.02 | 13.41 | 10.04 | 18.98 | 3.57 |
| P/FFO | 15.23 | 12.64 | 7.96 | 29.31 | 8.32 |
| P/TBV | 6.34 | 5.81 | 4.61 | 10.25 | 1.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.34 | 5.81 | 4.61 | 10.25 | 1.95 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.99 | 5.98 | 4.54 | 7.47 | 1.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALX's fair value at $272.76 vs the current price of $244.34, implying +11.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $272.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $228.29 (P10) to $320.68 (P90), with a median of $263.07.
ALX's current P/E of 44.4x compares to the industry median of 27.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +61.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
2 analysts cover ALX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $125.00 (range: $125.00 — $125.00), implying -48.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (11), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ALX trades at the 7140th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (31.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ALX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.