MODEL VERDICT
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $63.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $63.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $63.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $62.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $64.56 | Below threshold | -3.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $43.70 | -30.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $31.00 | -51.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $11.22 | -82.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $22.61 | -64.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $70.69 | +11.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $74.94 | +18.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $32.45 | -48.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $66.73 | +5.5% | 100% | 73 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 47.34 | 46.58 | 38.84 | 56.60 | 8.91 |
| P/TBV | 16.40 | 17.31 | 10.52 | 27.56 | 5.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 15.74 | 16.74 | 10.22 | 25.63 | 5.30 |
| P/S Ratio | 121.52 | 37.05 | 10.71 | 634.17 | 227.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARWR's fair value at $66.73 vs the current price of $63.27, implying +5.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $66.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.11 (P10) to $119.06 (P90), with a median of $61.30.
ARWR's current P/E of -5186.1x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -24303.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
20 analysts cover ARWR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $78.78 (range: $35.00 — $110.00), implying +24.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ARWR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.