MODEL VERDICT
ATS Corporation (ATS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $32.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $33.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $32.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $30.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $30.69 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $45.73 | +41.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $43.60 | +34.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $150.82 | +366.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $135.12 | +318.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $58.96 | +82.5% | 100% | 50 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.04 | 27.00 | 15.47 | 57.58 | 14.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 56.25 | 20.47 | 12.99 | 272.63 | 95.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.89 | 12.68 | 9.03 | 25.77 | 6.11 |
| P/FCF | 35.41 | 20.22 | 17.59 | 83.63 | 32.23 |
| P/FFO | 16.04 | 13.72 | 8.97 | 27.18 | 6.28 |
| P/AFFO | 22.00 | 20.43 | 10.71 | 37.18 | 8.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.78 | 2.64 | 1.58 | 5.07 | 1.22 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.41 | 1.24 | 0.99 | 2.57 | 0.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates ATS's fair value at $58.96 vs the current price of $32.31, implying +82.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 50/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $58.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.78 (P10) to $63.37 (P90), with a median of $52.20.
ATS's current P/E of -151.3x compares to the industry median of 68.0x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -322.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.0x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover ATS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $34.00 (range: $34.00 — $34.00), implying +5.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 50/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ATS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.