MODEL VERDICT
Bank of Montreal (BMO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $143.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $146.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $141.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $145.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $132.58 | Below threshold | +9.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 21 industry peers | $163.79 | +13.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $193.80 | +34.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 21 bank peers | $168.87 | +17.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 19 industry peers | $242.46 | +68.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $163.39 | +13.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 21 analyst estimates | $149.69 | +4.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $154.39 | +7.3% | 100% | 87 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $154 | $178 | $201 | $225 | $249 |
| Conservative (6%) | $157 | $181 | $205 | $230 | $254 |
| Base Case (8.7%) | $162 | $187 | $211 | $236 | $261 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $166 | $192 | $217 | $243 | $268 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.23 | 10.07 | 4.53 | 17.18 | 3.75 |
| EV/EBIT | 36.40 | 37.99 | 16.42 | 57.69 | 13.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.78 | 32.22 | 15.17 | 42.68 | 8.86 |
| P/FCF | 6.29 | 2.57 | 0.98 | 17.19 | 6.22 |
| P/FFO | 7.55 | 7.50 | 4.02 | 10.79 | 2.02 |
| P/TBV | 1.20 | 1.17 | 0.95 | 1.41 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 8.76 | 7.91 | 4.24 | 14.52 | 3.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.96 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 1.21 | 0.14 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.37 | 1.29 | 0.90 | 2.15 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BMO's fair value at $154.39 vs the current price of $143.93, implying +7.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $154.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $143.17 (P10) to $168.09 (P90), with a median of $155.25.
BMO's current P/E of 17.2x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (21 peers in the group). This represents a +20.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.2x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
18 analysts cover BMO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $78.00 (range: $78.00 — $78.00), implying -45.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (8), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BMO trades at the 7140th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BMO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1750.0% to approximately $169. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.