MODEL VERDICT
Colony Bankcorp, Inc. (CBAN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $19.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $19.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $21.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $20.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $20.95 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $22.56 | +13.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $28.88 | +45.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $35.28 | +77.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $19.82 | -0.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $22.56 | +13.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $22.69 | +14.4% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $23.87 | +20.4% | 100% | 94 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $13 | $16 | $19 | $23 | $26 |
| Conservative (5%) | $13 | $17 | $20 | $23 | $27 |
| Base Case (5.1%) | $13 | $17 | $20 | $23 | $27 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $14 | $17 | $20 | $24 | $27 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.68 | 11.21 | 10.28 | 14.73 | 1.46 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.46 | 16.42 | 11.30 | 17.54 | 2.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.10 | 12.44 | 8.23 | 15.84 | 2.77 |
| P/FCF | 84.29 | 12.70 | 4.66 | 384.30 | 167.75 |
| P/FFO | 8.73 | 7.87 | 7.00 | 11.49 | 1.89 |
| P/TBV | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.04 | 1.36 | 0.10 |
| P/AFFO | 10.33 | 9.17 | 7.72 | 15.66 | 2.68 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.96 | 0.95 | 0.84 | 1.15 | 0.10 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.46 | 2.02 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CBAN's fair value at $23.87 vs the current price of $19.83, implying +20.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $23.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.20 (P10) to $24.87 (P90), with a median of $23.51.
CBAN's current P/E of 12.5x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -12.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.7x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
2 analysts cover CBAN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CBAN trades at the 4450th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CBAN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 970.0% to approximately $18. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.