MODEL VERDICT
Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $140.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $141.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $143.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $142.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $142.50 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $144.16 | +2.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $97.33 | -30.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $128.42 | -8.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $169.33 | +20.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $144.06 | +2.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $125.54 | -10.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $138.97 | -1.0% | 100% | 97 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $105 | $126 | $147 | $168 | $189 |
| Conservative (9%) | $108 | $130 | $152 | $173 | $195 |
| Base Case (14.3%) | $113 | $136 | $159 | $181 | $204 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $118 | $142 | $166 | $189 | $213 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.04 | 15.14 | 11.95 | 18.70 | 2.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.08 | 4.31 | 2.60 | 9.41 | 2.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.57 | 3.85 | 2.35 | 8.49 | 2.35 |
| P/FCF | 21.53 | 13.91 | 10.01 | 63.75 | 18.96 |
| P/FFO | 12.82 | 12.97 | 10.36 | 15.77 | 1.80 |
| P/TBV | 2.13 | 1.91 | 1.51 | 3.48 | 0.64 |
| P/AFFO | 16.69 | 16.05 | 13.55 | 21.32 | 2.76 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.90 | 1.82 | 1.28 | 2.75 | 0.47 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.81 | 3.70 | 2.64 | 5.79 | 1.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CFR's fair value at $138.97 vs the current price of $140.36, implying -1.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $138.97 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $126.68 (P10) to $146.58 (P90), with a median of $136.60.
CFR's current P/E of 14.1x compares to the industry median of 14.5x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -2.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.0x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
33 analysts cover CFR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $154.88 (range: $144.00 — $164.00), implying +10.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (22), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CFR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (25.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1990.0% to approximately $168. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.