MODEL VERDICT
Columbia Financial, Inc. (CLBK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $19.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $18.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $18.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $18.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $18.16 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $11.59 | -39.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $11.60 | -39.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $7.84 | -59.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.41 | -30.3% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 41.07 | 32.25 | 23.70 | 76.45 | 20.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 45.28 | 36.48 | 19.65 | 84.68 | 25.75 |
| EV/EBITDA | 39.43 | 33.57 | 17.99 | 76.19 | 21.93 |
| P/FCF | 142.74 | 39.32 | 17.01 | 758.89 | 272.22 |
| P/FFO | 108.40 | 31.52 | 20.95 | 554.45 | 197.25 |
| P/TBV | 2.03 | 2.06 | 1.68 | 2.47 | 0.28 |
| P/AFFO | 49.32 | 36.70 | 22.13 | 128.89 | 40.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.85 | 1.91 | 1.49 | 2.18 | 0.23 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.80 | 6.44 | 3.55 | 7.03 | 1.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates CLBK's fair value at $13.41 vs the current price of $19.25, implying -30.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.70 (P10) to $15.55 (P90), with a median of $14.11.
CLBK's current P/E of -175.0x compares to the industry median of 14.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -1273.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 41.1x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover CLBK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $17.00 (range: $17.00 — $17.00), implying -11.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CLBK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.