MODEL VERDICT
Campbell Soup Company (CPB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $20.43 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $30.48 | +47.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $44.59 | +115.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $43.23 | +108.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $29.70 | +43.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $61.82 | +198.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $29.20 | +40.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $34.51 | +66.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $35.72 | +72.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $43.23 | +108.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $29.70 | +43.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.48 | +85.6% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $12 | $16 | $21 | $25 | $29 |
| Conservative (5%) | $13 | $17 | $21 | $25 | $30 |
| Base Case (-17.8%) | $10 | $13 | $17 | $20 | $23 |
| Bull Case (-24%) | $9 | $12 | $15 | $18 | $21 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.80 | 15.17 | 9.02 | 70.60 | 21.21 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.13 | 18.26 | 11.95 | 23.82 | 4.28 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.25 | 12.22 | 8.64 | 15.37 | 2.35 |
| P/FCF | 15.90 | 16.83 | 11.86 | 18.81 | 2.62 |
| P/FFO | 12.47 | 10.45 | 7.51 | 22.72 | 5.31 |
| P/AFFO | 21.74 | 14.87 | 8.87 | 54.67 | 15.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.36 | 4.20 | 2.14 | 13.42 | 3.75 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.52 | 1.56 | 0.82 | 2.00 | 0.39 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CPB's fair value at $38.48 vs the current price of $20.73, implying +85.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.11 (P10) to $44.75 (P90), with a median of $39.19.
CPB's current P/E of 10.3x compares to the industry median of 21.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -52.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.8x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
29 analysts cover CPB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $25.83 (range: $18.00 — $38.00), implying +24.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (16), Sell (10), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CPB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 27900.0% to approximately $79. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.