Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$108.77
→
Intrinsic$299.33
+175%
$199.97$299.33$487.85
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests FRT could have 175% upside at 24% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $109, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 24%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $200 → Bull $488. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 20% | 22% | 24% | 26% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $371 | $401 | $434 | $469 |
| 10% | $256 | $277 | $299 | $323 |
| 12% | $192 | $208 | $225 | $242 |
| 14% | $152 | $164 | $178 | $191 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($488) offers 349% upside at 29% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (24%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($200) with 19% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 24% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
Loading charts...
5-Year FFO Projection
Year 1$967.51M
Year 2$1.20B
Year 3$1.49B
Year 4$1.85B
Year 5$2.30B
Terminal$33.89B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate24.2%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$778.92MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.