MODEL VERDICT
Gyre Therapeutics, Inc. (GYRE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $7.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $7.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $8.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $8.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $7.39 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $2.46 | -68.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $0.49 | -93.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $2.38 | -69.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $7.76 | -0.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $7.25 | -7.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $0.47 | -94.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.68 | -27.1% | 100% | 77 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 291× | 319× | 347× (Current) | 375× | 403× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
| Conservative (7%) | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $10 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 273.59 | 265.00 | 242.00 | 313.78 | 36.65 |
| EV/EBIT | 71.23 | 69.18 | 60.25 | 86.30 | 12.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 58.15 | 55.86 | 49.43 | 69.15 | 10.06 |
| P/FFO | 120.81 | 96.52 | 90.53 | 175.37 | 47.35 |
| P/TBV | 30.95 | 12.80 | 5.30 | 138.05 | 47.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 28.47 | 12.58 | 5.12 | 121.24 | 41.39 |
| P/S Ratio | 30.40 | 13.31 | 5.88 | 86.66 | 33.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates GYRE's fair value at $5.68 vs the current price of $7.80, implying -27.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.89 (P10) to $9.40 (P90), with a median of $6.91.
GYRE's current P/E of 346.7x compares to the industry median of 21.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +1497.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 273.6x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
1 analysts cover GYRE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.00 (range: $16.00 — $18.00), implying +117.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GYRE trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (273.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GYRE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.