MODEL VERDICT
Helen of Troy Limited (HELE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $23.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $23.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $18.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $16.73 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $47.23 | +97.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $126.35 | +428.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $85.72 | +258.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $161.88 | +576.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $81.99 | +242.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $49.62 | +107.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $126.50 | +428.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $93.57 | +291.0% | 100% | 71 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.67 | 16.20 | 3.96 | 36.91 | 12.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.16 | 12.84 | 5.71 | 27.15 | 8.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.77 | 13.25 | 6.79 | 27.74 | 8.14 |
| P/FCF | 27.93 | 22.19 | 3.22 | 87.19 | 29.95 |
| P/FFO | 14.32 | 12.96 | 2.74 | 29.65 | 9.93 |
| P/TBV | 44.01 | 43.32 | 42.16 | 46.55 | 2.27 |
| P/AFFO | 52.16 | 23.41 | 3.30 | 222.30 | 84.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.24 | 1.95 | 0.29 | 4.97 | 1.93 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.45 | 1.22 | 0.26 | 3.30 | 1.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates HELE's fair value at $93.57 vs the current price of $23.93, implying +291.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $93.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $74.07 (P10) to $134.57 (P90), with a median of $100.35.
HELE's current P/E of -0.6x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -102.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.7x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover HELE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $22.00 (range: $22.00 — $22.00), implying -8.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HELE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.