MODEL VERDICT
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $62.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $64.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $65.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $65.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $63.46 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $66.10 | +6.1% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 5 REIT peers | $73.95 | +18.7% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $68.01 | +9.1% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $100.47 | +61.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $50.50 | -19.0% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $106.24 | +70.5% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $210.83 | +238.3% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $188.47 | +202.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $86.24 | +38.4% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $57 | $61 | $66 | $70 | $74 |
| Conservative (7%) | $58 | $63 | $67 | $72 | $76 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $60 | $65 | $69 | $74 | $79 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $62 | $67 | $72 | $76 | $81 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 48.43 | 37.99 | 19.42 | 94.16 | 32.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.10 | 34.09 | 15.82 | 50.07 | 15.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.66 | 19.77 | 11.34 | 72.00 | 22.63 |
| P/FCF | 14.78 | 11.19 | 10.70 | 26.06 | 7.52 |
| P/FFO | 16.68 | 17.82 | 10.21 | 22.84 | 5.36 |
| P/TBV | 1.30 | 1.34 | 1.04 | 1.61 | 0.20 |
| P/AFFO | 18.74 | 20.43 | 12.48 | 23.55 | 4.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.28 | 1.32 | 1.02 | 1.57 | 0.20 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.60 | 3.71 | 2.20 | 5.62 | 1.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates HHH's fair value at $86.24 vs the current price of $62.32, implying +38.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $86.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $77.07 (P10) to $108.94 (P90), with a median of $90.49.
HHH's current P/E of 29.7x compares to the industry median of 24.0x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +23.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 48.4x over 5 years. Signal: Premium.
5 analysts cover HHH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $87.50 (range: $80.00 — $95.00), implying +40.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HHH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.