MODEL VERDICT
Lionsgate Studios Corp. (LION)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $14.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $13.40 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $14.35 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $14.95 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $12.64 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $3.99 | -72.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $24.57 | +71.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $0.56 | -96.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $5.95 | -58.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $15.00 | +4.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $0.65 | -95.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.54 | -40.4% | 100% | 53 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates LION's fair value at $8.54 vs the current price of $14.32, implying -40.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 53/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.01 (P10) to $16.01 (P90), with a median of $11.48.
LION's current P/E of -20.8x compares to the industry median of 22.4x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -192.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover LION with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.50 (range: $11.00 — $17.00), implying +1.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 53/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LION.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.