MODEL VERDICT
MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $14.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $15.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $16.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $16.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $15.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $206.83 | +1291.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $178.81 | +1103.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $218.80 | +1372.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $129.49 | +771.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $236.65 | +1492.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $155.00 | +943.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $128.50 | +764.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $103.74 | +598.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $211.03 | +1320.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $123.32 | +729.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $154.29 | +938.3% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $70 | $87 | $105 | $122 | $140 |
| Conservative (7%) | $72 | $89 | $107 | $125 | $143 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $74 | $92 | $111 | $129 | $148 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $76 | $95 | $114 | $133 | $153 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 6.98 | 3.91 | 1.90 | 18.21 | 7.60 |
| EV/EBIT | 1.63 | 1.34 | 0.58 | 2.97 | 1.22 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.32 | 2.61 | 1.25 | 3.10 | 0.96 |
| P/FCF | 7.91 | 5.30 | 2.26 | 18.28 | 6.46 |
| P/FFO | 2.98 | 2.78 | 1.86 | 4.51 | 1.11 |
| P/TBV | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.47 | 1.11 | 0.25 |
| P/AFFO | 4.32 | 3.74 | 2.06 | 7.73 | 2.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.67 | 0.69 | 0.38 | 1.10 | 0.28 |
| Div Yield | 0.17 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.29 | 0.09 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.30 | 0.80 | 0.29 | 2.96 | 1.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MNSO's fair value at $154.29 vs the current price of $14.86, implying +938.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $154.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $124.39 (P10) to $161.39 (P90), with a median of $142.87.
MNSO's current P/E of 12.1x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -53.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.0x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover MNSO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $22.35 (range: $21.70 — $23.00), implying +50.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MNSO trades at the 2370th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (7.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MNSO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (30.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 84580.0% to approximately $141. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.