MODEL VERDICT
National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $3.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $3.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $3.56 | Below threshold | +0.3% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $3.40 | Below threshold | +3.2% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $3.29 | Below threshold | +6.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $0.59 | -82.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $0.01 | -99.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $0.25 | -92.6% | 100% | 48 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 25.91 | 11.13 | 0.25 | 81.15 | 37.21 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.45 | 25.57 | 7.26 | 28.53 | 11.52 |
| P/FCF | 7.40 | 6.13 | 4.38 | 11.68 | 3.81 |
| P/FFO | 11.45 | 6.93 | 0.28 | 31.67 | 13.84 |
| P/TBV | 7.18 | 6.01 | 5.00 | 10.54 | 2.95 |
| P/AFFO | 17.96 | 9.09 | 0.28 | 44.51 | 23.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.46 | 1.55 | 0.55 |
| Div Yield | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.20 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.73 | 1.62 | 0.07 | 3.21 | 1.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates NCMI's fair value at $0.25 vs the current price of $3.41, implying -92.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $0.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
NCMI's current P/E of N/Ax compares to the industry median of 18.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a N/A discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: N/A.
17 analysts cover NCMI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $7.50 (range: $7.00 — $8.00), implying +119.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NCMI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.