MODEL VERDICT
ON24, Inc. (ONTF) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $8.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $7.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $7.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $7.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $7.96 | Pending | -0.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $2.69 | -66.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $1.83 | -77.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $2.43 | -69.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $12.15 | +51.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $11.01 | +37.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $1.83 | -77.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.83 | -27.3% | 100% | 63 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 233.30 | 105.17 | 85.15 | 509.58 | 239.47 |
| P/TBV | 1.95 | 1.97 | 1.34 | 2.43 | 0.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.95 | 1.95 | 1.33 | 2.42 | 0.45 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.52 | 2.15 | 1.82 | 4.07 | 0.89 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates ONTF's fair value at $5.83 vs the current price of $8.01, implying -27.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.28 (P10) to $10.14 (P90), with a median of $6.21.
ONTF's current P/E of -11.8x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -145.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover ONTF with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $8.10 (range: $8.10 — $8.10), implying +1.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ONTF.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.