MODEL VERDICT
PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $36.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $31.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $32.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $30.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $29.41 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $67.43 | +86.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $418.74 | +1057.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $73.46 | +103.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $60.49 | +67.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $85.35 | +135.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $98.61 | +172.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $140.90 | +289.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $69.08 | +90.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $84.62 | +133.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $43.29 | +19.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $140.47 | +288.2% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $22 | $30 | $37 | $45 | $52 |
| Conservative (7%) | $23 | $31 | $38 | $46 | $54 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $24 | $32 | $39 | $47 | $55 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $24 | $33 | $41 | $49 | $57 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.43 | 9.85 | 8.21 | 121.51 | 45.62 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.67 | 8.38 | 6.32 | 11.86 | 1.98 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.55 | 1.30 | 0.69 | 29.44 | 10.52 |
| P/FCF | 9.71 | 9.25 | 3.71 | 17.15 | 5.17 |
| P/FFO | 23.98 | 1.00 | 0.46 | 125.16 | 45.81 |
| P/TBV | 6.36 | 6.56 | 3.02 | 12.63 | 3.23 |
| P/AFFO | 18.15 | 0.92 | 0.47 | 94.54 | 37.66 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.67 | 2.43 | 1.54 | 4.38 | 1.05 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.34 | 1.78 | 0.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PRG's fair value at $140.47 vs the current price of $36.19, implying +288.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $140.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $103.99 (P10) to $184.81 (P90), with a median of $137.12.
PRG's current P/E of 10.1x compares to the industry median of 20.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -50.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.4x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover PRG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $42.50 (range: $35.00 — $47.50), implying +17.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PRG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (12.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 32070.0% to approximately $152. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.