MODEL VERDICT
Perella Weinberg Partners (PWP) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $18.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $20.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $21.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $23.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Dec 17, 2024 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $24.50 | Below threshold | -20.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $15.03 | -18.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $14.67 | -20.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 23 industry peers | $25.19 | +36.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $19.08 | +3.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $118.86 | +542.1% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 8.38 | 9.07 | 2.35 | 13.05 | 5.05 |
| P/TBV | 245.43 | 4.94 | 2.68 | 1208.17 | 538.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.80 | 3.96 | 2.02 | 14.14 | 4.83 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.44 | 1.44 | 0.68 | 2.02 | 0.49 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates PWP's fair value at $118.86 vs the current price of $18.51, implying +542.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $118.86 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.09 (P10) to $486.13 (P90), with a median of $137.25.
PWP's current P/E of -15.2x compares to the industry median of 26.9x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -156.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover PWP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $21.25 (range: $21.00 — $21.50), implying +14.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PWP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.