MODEL VERDICT
ReNew Energy Global Plc (RNW) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $5.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $5.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $5.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $5.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $5.43 | Pending | -3.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $456.91 | +8177.4% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $1351.95 | +24391.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $427.77 | +7649.5% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $2580.59 | +46649.8% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $229.10 | +4050.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $412.54 | +7373.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $848.41 | +15269.8% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 38× | 42× | 46× (Current) | 50× | 54× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $432 | $477 | $522 | $568 | $613 |
| Conservative (7%) | $442 | $488 | $535 | $581 | $628 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $456 | $505 | $553 | $601 | $649 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $471 | $521 | $570 | $620 | $669 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 13.33 | 12.19 | 11.49 | 17.45 | 2.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.22 | 9.19 | 8.58 | 9.94 | 0.64 |
| P/FFO | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 0.04 |
| P/TBV | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates RNW's fair value at $848.41 vs the current price of $5.52, implying +15269.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $848.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $421.63 (P10) to $1010.75 (P90), with a median of $681.80.
RNW's current P/E of 46.0x compares to the industry median of 41.8x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +10.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Fair Value.
6 analysts cover RNW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $6.52 (range: $6.03 — $7.00), implying +18.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RNW.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.