MODEL VERDICT
Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $12.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $12.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $11.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $12.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $11.88 | Below threshold | +7.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 21 industry peers | $11.62 | -6.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $11.17 | -9.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 21 bank peers | $9.90 | -19.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 19 industry peers | $6.37 | -48.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $11.62 | -6.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 21 analyst estimates | $14.97 | +21.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.96 | -27.5% | 100% | 85 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $8 | $10 | $12 | $13 | $15 |
| Conservative (11%) | $9 | $10 | $12 | $14 | $15 |
| Base Case (17.1%) | $9 | $11 | $13 | $14 | $16 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $9 | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.76 | 6.92 | 5.46 | 11.34 | 2.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.87 | 12.62 | 7.20 | 25.12 | 6.79 |
| EV/EBITDA | 49.23 | 12.36 | 6.02 | 275.15 | 99.75 |
| P/FCF | 1.71 | 1.26 | 0.92 | 2.96 | 1.09 |
| P/FFO | 5.43 | 4.98 | 3.96 | 7.13 | 1.36 |
| P/TBV | 0.77 | 0.80 | 0.63 | 0.92 | 0.10 |
| P/AFFO | 28.39 | 19.03 | 9.63 | 65.88 | 25.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.51 | 0.68 | 0.06 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.78 | 0.87 | 0.55 | 1.04 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates SAN's fair value at $8.96 vs the current price of $12.36, implying -27.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.17 (P10) to $9.48 (P90), with a median of $8.81.
SAN's current P/E of 13.6x compares to the industry median of 15.1x (21 peers in the group). This represents a -9.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.8x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
23 analysts cover SAN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $3.00 (range: $3.00 — $3.00), implying -75.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (7), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SAN trades at the 4290th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (7.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SAN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (6.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6860.0% to approximately $4. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.