MODEL VERDICT
Twilio Inc. (TWLO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $120.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $113.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $113.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $118.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $131.39 | Below threshold | -11.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 29 analyst estimates | $62.31 | -48.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 24 industry peers | $24.63 | -79.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 19 industry peers | $3.74 | -96.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 27 industry peers | $71.71 | -40.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 20 industry peers | $6.56 | -94.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 27 industry peers | $56.69 | -53.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $72.18 | -40.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $81.39 | -32.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 23 industry peers | $4.47 | -96.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 27 industry peers | $71.71 | -40.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $59.68 | -50.7% | 100% | 76 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 484× | 530× | 576× (Current) | 622× | 668× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $106 | $116 | $126 | $136 | $146 |
| Conservative (7%) | $108 | $119 | $129 | $139 | $149 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $112 | $122 | $133 | $144 | $154 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $115 | $126 | $137 | $148 | $159 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 29.18 | 27.28 | 22.00 | 38.26 | 8.30 |
| P/TBV | 8.21 | 8.40 | 2.02 | 17.18 | 4.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.92 | 2.91 | 0.85 | 5.88 | 1.69 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.97 | 4.49 | 2.34 | 28.19 | 9.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates TWLO's fair value at $59.68 vs the current price of $120.96, implying -50.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $59.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $45.50 (P10) to $87.62 (P90), with a median of $65.53.
TWLO's current P/E of 576.0x compares to the industry median of 17.8x (19 peers in the group). This represents a +3131.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
52 analysts cover TWLO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $141.75 (range: $100.00 — $170.00), implying +17.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (36), Hold (14), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TWLO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.