MODEL VERDICT
Twilio Inc. (TWLO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $183.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $143.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $140.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $134.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $117.65 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $95.49 | -47.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $43.82 | -76.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $3.44 | -98.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $67.00 | -63.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $24.12 | -86.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $84.01 | -54.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $85.04 | -53.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $70.49 | -61.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $3.53 | -98.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $79.06 | -56.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $79.81 | -56.5% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 733× | 803× | 873× (Current) | 943× | 1013× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $160 | $175 | $191 | $206 | $221 |
| Conservative (7%) | $164 | $180 | $195 | $211 | $227 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $169 | $185 | $202 | $218 | $234 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $175 | $191 | $208 | $225 | $241 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 29.18 | 27.28 | 22.00 | 38.26 | 8.30 |
| P/TBV | 8.21 | 8.40 | 2.02 | 17.18 | 4.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.92 | 2.91 | 0.85 | 5.88 | 1.69 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.97 | 4.49 | 2.34 | 28.19 | 9.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates TWLO's fair value at $79.81 vs the current price of $183.34, implying -56.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $79.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $65.97 (P10) to $95.31 (P90), with a median of $80.46.
TWLO's current P/E of 873.0x compares to the industry median of 16.4x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +5227.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
52 analysts cover TWLO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $185.17 (range: $100.00 — $215.00), implying +1.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (39), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TWLO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.