MODEL VERDICT
Zeta Global Holdings Corp. (ZETA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Zeta Global Holdings Corp. (ZETA)
Zeta Global Holdings Corp. (ZETA) — Relative ValuationPeer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Zeta Global Holdings Corp. (ZETA)
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $16.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $16.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $15.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $17.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $24.40 | Below threshold | -30.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $19.34 | +14.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $8.73 | -48.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $16.27 | -4.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $2.05 | -87.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $16.90 | -0.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $21.83 | +28.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $19.68 | +16.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $16.38 | -3.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.69 | -1.5% | 100% | 71 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 35.30 | 28.93 | 24.46 | 61.43 | 15.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.80 | 7.66 | 4.94 | 11.90 | 2.78 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.59 | 2.35 | 1.90 | 3.47 | 0.76 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates ZETA's fair value at $16.69 vs the current price of $16.95, implying -1.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.08 (P10) to $18.51 (P90), with a median of $15.26.
ZETA's current P/E of -121.1x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -562.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
15 analysts cover ZETA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $28.86 (range: $25.00 — $36.00), implying +70.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ZETA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.