Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated Feb 28, 2026
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
As of March 1, 2026, Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $14.50, based on estimates from 23 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $10.14, this represents a potential upside of +43.0%. The company has a market capitalization of $1.67B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $11.00 to a high of $18.00, representing a 48% spread in expectations. The median target of $14.50 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 17 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,3 rating it Hold, and 3 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. This overwhelmingly bullish sentiment suggests analysts see significant catalysts for upside ahead.
From a valuation perspective, NVAX trades at a trailing P/E of 3.9x. Analysts expect EPS to grow -114.0% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $19.05, with bear and bull scenarios of $-343.54 and $17.37 respectively. Model confidence stands at 29/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
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Start ComparisonThe consensus Wall Street price target for NVAX is $14.5, representing 43.0% upside from the current price of $10.14. With 23 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
NVAX has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 23 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 17 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $14.5 implies 43.0% upside from current levels.
NVAX's current price is $10.14 with a consensus target of $14.5 (43.0% implied move). Analyst estimates suggest the stock is undervalued at current levels.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $18 for NVAX, while the most conservative target is $11. The consensus of $14.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $17 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
NVAX is well covered by analysts, with 23 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 17 have Buy ratings, 3 recommend Hold, and 3 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month NVAX stock forecast based on 23 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $14.5, with estimates ranging from $11 (bear case) to $18 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $19, with bear/bull scenarios of $-344/$17.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates NVAX's fair value at $19 (base case), with a bear case of $-344 and bull case of $17. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 29/100.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on NVAX, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $14.5 price target (43.0% upside). 17 of 23 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
NVAX analyst price targets range from $11 to $18, a 48% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $14.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $-344-$17 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.