MODEL VERDICT
Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. (NUS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $7.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $7.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $7.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $7.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $7.52 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $18.92 | +163.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $8.46 | +17.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $58.43 | +712.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $14.76 | +105.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $23.40 | +225.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $14.76 | +105.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $32.70 | +354.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $30.20 | +320.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $58.33 | +711.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $14.80 | +105.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.39 | +253.2% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 6× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $13 | $13 | $13 | $13 | $19 |
| Conservative (5%) | $13 | $13 | $13 | $13 | $20 |
| Base Case (-2.6%) | $12 | $12 | $12 | $12 | $19 |
| Bull Case (-4%) | $12 | $12 | $12 | $12 | $18 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.61 | 16.40 | 3.03 | 114.24 | 41.40 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.07 | 11.39 | 9.21 | 23.29 | 5.80 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.36 | 8.50 | 7.16 | 13.01 | 2.29 |
| P/FCF | 20.05 | 16.10 | 4.88 | 43.47 | 14.44 |
| P/FFO | 9.39 | 10.22 | 2.28 | 12.44 | 3.72 |
| P/TBV | 2.80 | 3.41 | 0.69 | 4.79 | 1.67 |
| P/AFFO | 18.40 | 13.56 | 2.72 | 50.10 | 16.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.91 | 2.37 | 0.53 | 3.22 | 1.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.71 | 0.95 | 0.20 | 1.12 | 0.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates NUS's fair value at $25.39 vs the current price of $7.19, implying +253.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.02 (P10) to $39.59 (P90), with a median of $27.09.
NUS's current P/E of 2.3x compares to the industry median of 18.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -87.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.6x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover NUS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $11.00 (range: $11.00 — $11.00), implying +53.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NUS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (3.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 65650.0% to approximately $54. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.