MODEL VERDICT
Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $25.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $28.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $29.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $29.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $29.49 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $26.24 | +2.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $33.83 | +32.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $39.49 | +54.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $11.68 | -54.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $45.46 | +77.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $16.43 | -35.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $5.70 | -77.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $27.23 | +6.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $24.19 | -5.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $39.60 | +55.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $11.36 | -55.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.00 | +68.3% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $19 | $23 | $26 | $30 | $34 |
| Conservative (5%) | $19 | $23 | $27 | $31 | $35 |
| Base Case (1.4%) | $19 | $22 | $26 | $30 | $34 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $19 | $22 | $26 | $30 | $34 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.66 | 37.75 | 14.16 | 46.18 | 11.97 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.75 | 27.56 | 12.15 | 36.74 | 9.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.13 | 25.69 | 12.24 | 34.41 | 8.19 |
| P/FCF | 46.88 | 46.39 | 28.60 | 62.45 | 11.68 |
| P/FFO | 29.92 | 34.42 | 12.89 | 42.35 | 10.98 |
| P/TBV | 45.08 | 29.16 | 8.18 | 130.87 | 42.21 |
| P/AFFO | 34.99 | 40.35 | 15.62 | 48.42 | 12.07 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.49 | 11.53 | 3.09 | 19.79 | 6.50 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.60 | 8.03 | 3.10 | 11.35 | 3.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates BF-B's fair value at $43.00 vs the current price of $25.55, implying +68.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.17 (P10) to $45.82 (P90), with a median of $40.42.
BF-B's current P/E of 13.9x compares to the industry median of 21.5x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -35.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 32.7x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
35 analysts cover BF-B with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (23), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BF-B's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 16450.0% to approximately $68. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.