MODEL VERDICT
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $98.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $101.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $92.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $91.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $87.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $160.11 | +62.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $139.96 | +41.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $158.13 | +60.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $113.63 | +15.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $149.19 | +51.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $77.84 | -21.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $535.67 | +443.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $10.04 | -89.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $52.79 | -46.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $126.26 | +28.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $114.34 | +15.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $227.39 | +130.5% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (40%) | $111 | $126 | $141 | $156 | $171 |
| Conservative (64%) | $131 | $149 | $166 | $184 | $201 |
| Base Case (99.1%) | $159 | $180 | $201 | $222 | $244 |
| Bull Case (134%) | $187 | $211 | $236 | $261 | $286 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 105.64 | 24.62 | 18.51 | 572.94 | 206.23 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.11 | 18.03 | 15.70 | 105.33 | 32.58 |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.74 | 21.94 | 13.35 | 58.63 | 15.17 |
| P/FCF | 49.03 | 44.10 | 16.42 | 101.76 | 31.61 |
| P/FFO | 84.67 | 17.33 | 13.12 | 482.13 | 175.33 |
| P/AFFO | 66.24 | 74.07 | 23.60 | 117.89 | 37.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 15.10 | 11.49 | 7.69 | 30.78 | 8.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.64 | 4.19 | 2.78 | 7.32 | 1.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CHDN's fair value at $227.39 vs the current price of $98.65, implying +130.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $227.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $137.82 (P10) to $308.53 (P90), with a median of $204.58.
CHDN's current P/E of 18.5x compares to the industry median of 29.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -37.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 105.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover CHDN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $144.84 (range: $60.75 — $167.00), implying +46.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CHDN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (27.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 107960.0% to approximately $1164. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.