MODEL VERDICT
Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. (CWAN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $24.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $24.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $24.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $24.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $24.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $15.24 | -37.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $12.38 | -48.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $10.68 | -55.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $20.49 | -15.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $20.81 | -14.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $12.38 | -48.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.84 | -22.2% | 100% | 63 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 448.72 | 563.56 | 136.70 | 645.91 | 273.34 |
| EV/EBITDA | 242.14 | 282.39 | 121.75 | 322.26 | 106.14 |
| P/FCF | 65.27 | 59.94 | 39.82 | 101.36 | 26.96 |
| P/TBV | 27.44 | 13.12 | 7.54 | 89.09 | 34.59 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.14 | 9.76 | 3.22 | 15.62 | 4.59 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.60 | 11.47 | 8.95 | 16.23 | 3.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates CWAN's fair value at $18.84 vs the current price of $24.23, implying -22.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.28 (P10) to $21.60 (P90), with a median of $18.39.
CWAN's current P/E of -173.1x compares to the industry median of 27.9x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -720.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover CWAN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $24.96 (range: $24.55 — $27.00), implying +3.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CWAN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.