MODEL VERDICT
Expensify, Inc. (EXFY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 132 analyst estimates | $3.65 | +164.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 125 industry peers | $3.90 | +182.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 126 industry peers | $4.41 | +219.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 160 industry peers | $6.41 | +364.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 162 industry peers | $6.12 | +343.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 126 industry peers | $4.03 | +192.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4.15 | +201.0% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 15.95 | 5.25 | 2.31 | 50.98 | 23.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 14.60 | 4.81 | 2.02 | 46.75 | 21.57 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.18 | 3.16 | 1.35 | 25.08 | 11.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates EXFY's fair value at $4.15 vs the current price of $1.38, implying +201.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.24 (P10) to $5.79 (P90), with a median of $4.49.
EXFY's current P/E of -11.5x compares to the industry median of 30.5x (75 peers in the group). This represents a -137.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover EXFY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $13.75 (range: $2.50 — $25.00), implying +896.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EXFY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.