MODEL VERDICT
HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $5.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $5.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $5.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $4.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $4.38 | Pending | +6.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $18.17 | +248.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $9.56 | +83.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $4.70 | -9.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $20.59 | +295.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $9.01 | +72.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $14.46 | +177.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $9.56 | +83.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $4.91 | -5.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.06 | +246.7% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $3 | $4 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
| Conservative (7%) | $3 | $4 | $6 | $7 | $9 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $3 | $4 | $6 | $7 | $9 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $3 | $5 | $6 | $8 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.48 | 16.89 | 9.01 | 27.11 | 8.49 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.13 | 9.34 | 6.47 | 19.35 | 5.66 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.16 | 4.38 | 3.18 | 8.67 | 2.54 |
| P/FFO | 5.88 | 4.66 | 2.74 | 11.47 | 4.02 |
| P/TBV | 2.03 | 2.14 | 1.13 | 3.10 | 0.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.03 | 2.13 | 1.13 | 3.10 | 0.76 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 31.62 | 4.83 | 1.58 | 117.04 | 47.57 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates HPK's fair value at $18.06 vs the current price of $5.21, implying +246.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.28 (P10) to $23.31 (P90), with a median of $15.41.
HPK's current P/E of 7.8x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (43 peers in the group). This represents a -45.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.5x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover HPK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $12.00 (range: $12.00 — $12.00), implying +130.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HPK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.