MODEL VERDICT
Klaviyo, Inc. (KVYO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $17.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $17.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $18.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $21.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $28.58 | Below threshold | -31.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $13.06 | -25.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $11.24 | -35.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $15.32 | -12.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $17.06 | -2.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $12.29 | -29.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $11.66 | -33.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.63 | +7.0% | 100% | 57 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 59.50 | 61.33 | 43.33 | 73.85 | 15.34 |
| P/TBV | 8.63 | 7.89 | 7.38 | 10.62 | 1.74 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.63 | 7.89 | 7.38 | 10.62 | 1.74 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.68 | 9.67 | 7.65 | 11.72 | 2.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates KVYO's fair value at $18.63 vs the current price of $17.41, implying +7.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.59 (P10) to $22.17 (P90), with a median of $18.35.
KVYO's current P/E of -158.3x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -789.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover KVYO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $33.87 (range: $29.00 — $42.00), implying +94.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for KVYO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.