MODEL VERDICT
Microvast Holdings, Inc. (MVST)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $1.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $1.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $1.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $1.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $1.65 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 15 analyst estimates | $1.98 | +0.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 14 industry peers | $1.16 | -41.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 13 industry peers | $4.07 | +105.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $0.20 | -89.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 14 industry peers | $4.20 | +112.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $11.34 | +472.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $12.01 | +506.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 14 industry peers | $4.24 | +114.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.00 | +51.5% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 12.59 | 1.67 | 0.78 | 68.44 | 27.37 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.50 | 1.62 | 0.76 | 50.04 | 19.87 |
| P/S Ratio | 14.49 | 2.27 | 1.42 | 47.80 | 20.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates MVST's fair value at $3.00 vs the current price of $1.98, implying +51.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.44 (P10) to $4.18 (P90), with a median of $3.28.
MVST's current P/E of -22.0x compares to the industry median of 28.4x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -177.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover MVST with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $4.80 (range: $1.59 — $8.00), implying +142.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MVST.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.