MODEL VERDICT
Nurix Therapeutics, Inc. (NRIX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $15.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $15.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $15.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $16.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $19.30 | Below threshold | -13.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $11.15 | -30.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $8.90 | -44.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.72 | -20.3% | 100% | 54 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.57 | 2.60 | 1.76 | 3.63 | 0.74 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.57 | 2.60 | 1.76 | 3.63 | 0.74 |
| P/S Ratio | 22.42 | 21.38 | 7.28 | 41.74 | 12.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates NRIX's fair value at $12.72 vs the current price of $15.97, implying -20.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.72 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.99 (P10) to $17.38 (P90), with a median of $12.62.
NRIX's current P/E of -5.2x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -124.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover NRIX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $31.22 (range: $28.00 — $36.00), implying +95.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NRIX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.